Stock Analysis on Net

Align Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since November 3, 2023.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Align Technology Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2022 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT experienced fluctuations over the observed period. It increased steadily from 520,148 thousand USD in 2018 to a peak of 1,236,388 thousand USD in 2021. However, in 2022, it sharply declined to 536,671 thousand USD, indicating a significant reduction in operating profitability after taxes during the last year.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital remained relatively stable across all years, hovering around 20.5% to 20.6%. This stability suggests that the firm’s required rate of return did not experience notable changes during this timeframe.
Invested Capital
Invested capital demonstrated a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It rose from 1,516,250 thousand USD in 2018 to 3,344,477 thousand USD by the end of 2022, more than doubling over five years. This indicates substantial reinvestment or acquisition of assets, expanding the company's capital base.
Economic Profit
Economic profit exhibited considerable variability. Starting at 208,898 thousand USD in 2018, it increased to a peak of 315,599 thousand USD in 2019 but declined sharply to 25,254 thousand USD in 2020. There was a notable recovery in 2021 to 621,002 thousand USD, followed by a significant negative economic profit of -150,173 thousand USD in 2022. This suggests that despite overall growth in invested capital, the returns generated did not sufficiently exceed the cost of capital in 2022, resulting in value destruction during that year.
Overall Analysis
Throughout the period, the company expanded its invested capital considerably, reflecting ongoing investment initiatives. However, profitability as measured by NOPAT and economic profit was volatile, with strong performance in 2019 and 2021 contrasted by substantial declines in 2020 and 2022. The stability in cost of capital indicates consistent expectations of return from investors and creditors. The negative economic profit in 2022, alongside the downturn in NOPAT, highlights challenges in converting invested capital into adequate returns during that year, warranting further investigation into operational or market factors influencing performance.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Align Technology Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts2
Increase (decrease) in deferred revenues3
Increase (decrease) in accrued warranty4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income9
Investment income, after taxes10
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in deferred revenues.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in accrued warranty.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

6 2022 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2022 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

9 2022 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

10 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


Net Income
Net income exhibited significant fluctuations over the analyzed period. Starting at 400,235 thousand USD in 2018, it increased moderately to 442,776 thousand USD in 2019. A substantial rise occurred in 2020, reaching a peak of 1,775,888 thousand USD. However, this peak was followed by a sharp decline in 2021 to 772,020 thousand USD, and the downward trend continued in 2022, with net income lowering further to 361,573 thousand USD. This pattern indicates a peak in profitability in 2020, followed by notable reductions in subsequent years.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT shows a generally variable pattern with less extreme fluctuations compared to net income. It started at 520,148 thousand USD in 2018, growing to 629,227 thousand USD in 2019. Subsequently, it declined to 531,854 thousand USD in 2020 but then experienced a marked increase in 2021, reaching 1,236,388 thousand USD. In 2022, NOPAT decreased significantly to 536,671 thousand USD, approximating earlier levels. This suggests the company experienced variations in operational efficiency and profitability, with a notable peak in 2021 before retreating the following year.
Overall Observations
Both net income and NOPAT peaked at different points within the timeframe, with net income reaching its highest in 2020 and NOPAT peaking in 2021. The trends highlight a period of exceptional profitability followed by sharp declines that suggest potential challenges in maintaining earnings growth or operational efficiency in recent years. The divergence in peak timings between net income and NOPAT may indicate differences in non-operating factors affecting profitability versus core operating performance.

Cash Operating Taxes

Align Technology Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in the provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes over the five-year period ending in 2022. A detailed examination of these figures uncovers several trends and significant changes.

Provision for (benefit from) Income Taxes

The provision demonstrates high volatility across the analyzed years. It started at approximately $57.7 million in 2018 and showed a significant increase to $112.3 million in 2019, indicating a rising tax expense or provision for that year.

In 2020, there is a dramatic decrease resulting in a benefit recorded at about -$1.4 billion. This negative figure suggests the presence of substantial tax benefits or credits, which significantly reduced the company's tax expense for that year.

Following this, the provision reverted to positive figures in 2021 and 2022, at $240.4 million and $237.5 million respectively, stabilizing around these levels but still significantly higher than the initial years.

Cash Operating Taxes

Cash operating taxes showed a generally increasing trend throughout the period. Beginning at $66.3 million in 2018, there was a modest rise to $111.9 million in 2019.

In 2020, despite the large benefit observed in the provision for income taxes, cash operating taxes decreased to $93.7 million, which could reflect timing differences, tax deferrals, or other operational tax management strategies.

From 2020 onward, cash operating taxes increased substantially to $228.6 million in 2021 and further to $279.0 million in 2022, indicating an increasing cash outflow related to income taxes consistent with the return to positive provisions.

In summary, the provision for income taxes shows significant year-to-year volatility with a major tax benefit recorded in 2020, whereas cash operating taxes have increased steadily over the latter part of the period. The divergence in 2020 between the provision and cash taxes suggests the influence of non-cash tax benefits or deferred tax assets impacting the provision without corresponding immediate cash tax relief.


Invested Capital

Align Technology Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for doubtful accounts3
Deferred revenues4
Accrued warranty5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Adjusted stockholders’ equity
Construction in progress8
Marketable securities9
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of deferred revenues.

5 Addition of accrued warranty.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to stockholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in progress.

9 Subtraction of marketable securities.


Over the five-year period ending December 31, 2022, several notable trends can be observed in the financial metrics analyzed.

Total reported debt & leases

This metric exhibited some volatility during the period. Initially, there was a significant decrease from approximately 106.7 million in 2018 to 59.2 million in 2019. However, starting from 2020, the debt levels began to rise again, reaching approximately 86.2 million, then increasing substantially to around 125.4 million by 2021, and stabilizing close to this level at approximately 126.9 million in 2022. This pattern indicates a strategic increase in leveraging after 2019, potentially to finance growth or investments.

Stockholders’ equity

There was a consistent and strong upward trend in stockholders’ equity throughout the period, with values growing steadily each year. The value increased from approximately 1.25 billion in 2018 to roughly 1.35 billion in 2019, then surged considerably to about 3.23 billion in 2020. The growth continued, albeit at a slower pace, reaching around 3.62 billion in 2021 and slightly declining to near 3.60 billion in 2022. This indicates significant capital accumulation and possibly successful retained earnings or equity financing activities over the period, with a minor contraction in the last year.

Invested capital

Invested capital showed a steady and marked increase over the five-year timeframe. Starting at about 1.52 billion in both 2018 and 2019, invested capital rose sharply to approximately 2.46 billion in 2020. The upward trend persisted, with invested capital reaching approximately 2.99 billion in 2021 and continuing to climb to around 3.34 billion in 2022. This increase suggests ongoing investments into the company’s assets, operations, or growth initiatives, reflecting expansion or scaling efforts.


Cost of Capital

Align Technology Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Align Technology Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Abbott Laboratories
Elevance Health Inc.
Intuitive Surgical Inc.
Medtronic PLC
UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2022 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit experienced significant fluctuations over the examined period. It increased notably from 208,898 thousand USD in 2018 to a peak of 621,002 thousand USD in 2021, reflecting substantial value generation during this time. However, there was a considerable decline in 2022, resulting in a negative economic profit of -150,173 thousand USD, indicating a loss in economic value for that year.
Invested Capital
The invested capital displayed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. Starting at 1,516,250 thousand USD in 2018, it steadily increased each year, reaching 3,344,477 thousand USD by 2022. This represents more than a twofold increase over five years, suggesting ongoing investments or asset acquisitions to support company operations and growth.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio showed considerable volatility. It began at 13.78% in 2018, improved to a high of 20.7% in 2019, and then dropped markedly to 1.03% in 2020. The ratio rebounded to 20.77% in 2021, paralleling the peak in economic profit, but fell sharply to a negative -4.49% in 2022, implying that the returns on invested capital were insufficient to cover the cost of capital, resulting in negative spread and potential value destruction.
Overall Analysis
The data highlights a period of substantial growth and strong profitability in 2019 and 2021, supported by increasing invested capital and positive economic spread ratios. However, the substantial decline in both economic profit and spread ratio in 2022 raises concerns. Despite the largest invested capital to date, the company experienced economic losses and negative returns on capital, which may warrant further investigation into operational efficiency, cost management, or external market factors impacting performance during that year.

Economic Profit Margin

Align Technology Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
 
Net revenues
Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenues
Adjusted net revenues
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Abbott Laboratories
Elevance Health Inc.
Intuitive Surgical Inc.
Medtronic PLC
UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2022 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted net revenues
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit exhibited considerable volatility over the analyzed period. Starting at approximately 209 million USD in 2018, it increased significantly to over 315 million USD in 2019. However, in 2020, economic profit sharply declined to about 25 million USD, representing a considerable contraction. The following year, 2021, showed a remarkable recovery and peak at over 621 million USD, the highest level across the period. Nevertheless, in 2022, economic profit turned negative, recording a loss of around 150 million USD, indicating challenges impacting profitability.
Adjusted Net Revenues
Adjusted net revenues displayed a general upward trajectory from 2018 to 2021, rising from approximately 2.1 billion USD in 2018 to a peak of around 4.4 billion USD in 2021. This represents a strong growth trend, particularly notable between 2020 and 2021, where revenues increased substantially. In 2022, revenues decreased to nearly 3.95 billion USD, reflecting a decline after the previous year's high, although still above the levels seen prior to 2020.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin followed a fluctuating pattern over the years. It started at just under 10% in 2018, improved to over 12% in 2019, then dramatically dropped below 1% in 2020. A significant recovery occurred in 2021, pushing the margin up to over 14%, the highest point within the dataset. In 2022, the margin reversed sharply into negative territory at -3.8%, consistent with the negative economic profit figure for that year.
Summary and Insights
Overall, the financial metrics reflect periods of robust growth and profitability, particularly in 2019 and 2021, interspersed with sharp downturns in 2020 and particularly 2022. The substantial increase in adjusted net revenues through 2021 indicates strong sales growth; however, the negative economic profit and margin in 2022 suggest that increased expenses, investments, or other factors adversely affected economic value creation. The data points to a need for management to address underlying cost or operational efficiency issues to restore positive economic profit and sustain revenue growth.