Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 193.87% per annum.
- HD price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $324.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.31 (8.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.18% per annum.
- HD price at the close of July 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: July 7, 2026
a = 4.5982
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 193.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.97%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5982 + 0.0030 × 371 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.7368)
= $310.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5982 + 0.0030 × 371 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.6509)
= $284.56
July 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5982 + 0.0030 × 428 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.9052)
= $366.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5982 + 0.0030 × 428 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.8193)
= $336.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 193.87% per annum.
- HD price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $324.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.31 (8.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2026
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 6.9534
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0143
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.87%
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9534 + -0.0026 × 417 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.9007)
= $365.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9534 + -0.0026 × 417 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.8437)
= $345.05
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9534 + -0.0026 × 444 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.8307)
= $340.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9534 + -0.0026 × 444 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.18% per annum.
- HD price at the close of July 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.