Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.24% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $111.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.66% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 8, 2026
a = 5.0481
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.79%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 196 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.9507)
= $141.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 196 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8041)
= $122.00
October 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 443 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.7355)
= $113.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 443 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.5889)
= $98.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.24% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $111.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 4.3793
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.40%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + 0.0007 × 394 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.6870)
= $108.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + 0.0007 × 394 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.6156)
= $101.05
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + 0.0007 × 444 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.7216)
= $112.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + 0.0007 × 444 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.6502)
= $104.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.66% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.