Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.82% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 23, 2026 was $119.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.15 (6.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,198.87% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 5.0431
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.93%
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y134)
= Exp(a + b × X134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0431 + -0.0009 × 195 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.9501)
= $141.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y134)
= Exp(a + b × X134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0431 + -0.0009 × 195 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.8023)
= $121.79
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0431 + -0.0009 × 444 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.7371)
= $114.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0431 + -0.0009 × 444 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.5893)
= $98.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.82% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 23, 2026 was $119.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.15 (6.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: October 23, 2026
a = 1.5843
b = 0.0070
s = 0.0138
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0070) – 1
= 1,198.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0138) – 1
= 5.70%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5843 + 0.0070 × 435 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(4.6678)
= $106.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5843 + 0.0070 × 435 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(4.6124)
= $100.73
October 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5843 + 0.0070 × 458 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(4.8294)
= $125.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5843 + 0.0070 × 458 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(4.7740)
= $118.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,198.87% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.