Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.95% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $112.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 5.5285
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.30%
April 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5285 + -0.0017 × 373 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.9386)
= $139.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5285 + -0.0017 × 373 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.8226)
= $124.29
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5285 + -0.0017 × 484 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.7458)
= $115.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5285 + -0.0017 × 484 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.6298)
= $102.49
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.95% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $112.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.7918
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.65%
June 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7918 + -0.0002 × 447 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.7534)
= $115.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7918 + -0.0002 × 447 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.6890)
= $108.74
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7918 + -0.0002 × 484 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.7475)
= $115.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7918 + -0.0002 × 484 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.6831)
= $108.11
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.