Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 307.45% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $123.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.34% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of September 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.05 (6.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: September 22, 2026
a = -2.1950
b = 0.0038
s = 0.1939
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 307.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1939) – 1
= 117.15%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1950 + 0.0038 × 1,289 + 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(3.1536)
= $23.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1950 + 0.0038 × 1,289 – 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(2.3782)
= $10.79
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1950 + 0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(5.2165)
= $184.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1950 + 0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(4.4411)
= $84.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 307.45% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $123.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 7.8481
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1033
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1033) – 1
= 51.14%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8481 + -0.0018 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(5.0053)
= $149.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8481 + -0.0018 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.5922)
= $98.71
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8481 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.7519)
= $115.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8481 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.3389)
= $76.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.34% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of September 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.05 (6.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.