Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.30% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $31.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.64 (21.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.33% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.79 (5.32%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: April 2, 2024
a = 1.8808
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0742
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.55%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8808 + 0.0011 × 1,241 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.3690)
= $29.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8808 + 0.0011 × 1,241 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.0722)
= $21.59
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8808 + 0.0011 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.9726)
= $53.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8808 + 0.0011 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.6758)
= $39.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.30% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $31.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.64 (21.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 21, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 7.8745
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0509
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0509) – 1
= 22.59%
December 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8745 + -0.0023 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(4.0166)
= $55.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8745 + -0.0023 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(3.8130)
= $45.28
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8745 + -0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(3.7226)
= $41.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8745 + -0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(3.5190)
= $33.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.33% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.79 (5.32%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out INTC and 1,499 other stocks on our new website