Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC)

The carrying amount of total debt exhibited an overall increasing trend from 2021 to 2023, followed by a slight decrease in 2024 and a more pronounced decrease in 2025. A detailed examination of the components reveals the drivers of this pattern.

Total Debt Trend

Total debt began at US$38.101 billion in 2021 and increased to US$49.266 billion by 2023, representing a cumulative increase of 29.0%. This growth slowed in 2024, with total debt reaching US$50.011 billion, and then decreased to US$46.585 billion in 2025.

Short-Term Debt

Short-term debt decreased from US$4.591 billion in 2021 to US$4.367 billion in 2022. A significant reduction occurred in 2023, falling to US$2.288 billion. This was followed by an increase to US$3.729 billion in 2024, and a subsequent decrease to US$2.499 billion in 2025. The volatility in short-term debt suggests active management of immediate financing needs.

Long-Term Debt

Long-term debt demonstrated a consistent increase from US$33.510 billion in 2021 to US$46.978 billion in 2023. While the rate of increase slowed, long-term debt remained elevated. In 2024, long-term debt decreased slightly to US$46.282 billion, and continued to decrease to US$44.086 billion in 2025. The dominance of long-term debt in the overall debt structure is apparent.

The increase in total debt between 2021 and 2023 was primarily driven by growth in long-term debt. The decrease observed in 2025 is attributable to reductions in both short-term and long-term debt, with the long-term debt reduction contributing more significantly to the overall change. The fluctuations in short-term debt suggest a dynamic approach to short-term financing, potentially linked to operational cash flow needs or strategic investment timing.

Interest expense, interest capitalized, and interest costs incurred all demonstrate notable fluctuations over the five-year period. Interest costs incurred, representing the sum of interest expense and interest capitalized, exhibit an overall increasing trend, though with some variability year-to-year.

Interest Expense

Interest expense decreased from US$597 million in 2021 to US$496 million in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 17%. However, it then increased significantly to US$878 million in 2023, followed by further increases to US$1,034 million in 2024 and US$1,091 million in 2025. This indicates a growing burden from financing costs in the later years of the period.

Interest Capitalized

Interest capitalized experienced a substantial increase from US$398 million in 2021 to US$785 million in 2022, more than doubling. This trend continued with a further increase to US$1,500 million in both 2023 and 2024. A slight decrease to US$1,200 million is observed in 2025, though it remains significantly higher than the 2021 and 2022 levels. The consistent capitalization of substantial interest suggests significant investment in projects where borrowing costs are being deferred as part of the asset cost.

Interest Costs Incurred

Interest costs incurred rose from US$995 million in 2021 to US$1,281 million in 2022, a 29% increase. This was followed by a considerable jump to US$2,378 million in 2023 and US$2,534 million in 2024. While a slight decrease to US$2,291 million is seen in 2025, the overall trend is upward. The increases in interest costs incurred are driven by the combined effect of rising interest expense and substantial interest capitalization.

The increasing trend in interest costs incurred, particularly the significant rise in interest capitalization, warrants further investigation. Understanding the nature and progress of the projects benefiting from interest capitalization is crucial for assessing the long-term financial implications.

The observed interest coverage ratios demonstrate a significant shift in the company’s ability to meet its interest obligations over the analyzed period. Both the standard and adjusted ratios exhibit declining performance initially, followed by some recovery in the most recent year.

Interest Coverage Ratio (without capitalized interest)

The interest coverage ratio, excluding capitalized interest, begins at a robust 37.35 in 2021. A substantial decrease is then observed, falling to 16.66 in 2022 and continuing downward to 1.87 in 2023. This ratio then becomes negative in 2024, reaching -9.84, indicating an inability to cover interest expense from earnings before interest and taxes. A partial recovery is seen in 2025, with the ratio increasing to 2.43, though still considerably lower than the initial value.

Adjusted Interest Coverage Ratio (with capitalized interest)

The adjusted interest coverage ratio, which incorporates capitalized interest, follows a similar pattern, albeit with lower values. Starting at 22.41 in 2021, it declines to 6.45 in 2022 and further to 0.69 in 2023. Like its unadjusted counterpart, this ratio turns negative in 2024, reaching -4.02. A modest improvement is noted in 2025, with the ratio rising to 1.16, but remains significantly below the 2021 level.

Comparative Trends

The adjusted ratio consistently reports lower values than the standard ratio across all periods, as expected, due to the inclusion of capitalized interest as an expense. The magnitude of the decline and the negative values experienced in 2024 are similar for both ratios, suggesting that the company’s core earnings relative to interest expense deteriorated significantly during that year. The recovery observed in 2025 is also present in both ratios, indicating a potential stabilization of earnings or a reduction in interest expense.

The progression of these ratios suggests increasing financial risk between 2021 and 2024, followed by a potential, though limited, improvement in 2025. Continued monitoring of these ratios is warranted to assess the sustainability of the recovery and the company’s long-term solvency.