Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.26% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $164.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.17 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.40% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: April 15, 2024
a = 0.7981
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 142.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7981 + 0.0024 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.7261)
= $112.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7981 + 0.0024 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5746)
= $96.98
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7981 + 0.0024 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.2618)
= $192.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7981 + 0.0024 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.1103)
= $165.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.26% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $164.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.17 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 6.3123
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.67%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3123 + -0.0007 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.1907)
= $179.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3123 + -0.0007 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.0983)
= $163.75
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3123 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.1537)
= $173.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3123 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.0614)
= $157.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.40% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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