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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc


Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

General Electric Co., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

USD $

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden%
0 DPS01 hidden
1 DPS1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
2 DPS2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
3 DPS3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
4 DPS4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
5 DPS5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) ÷ (hidden% – hidden%) hidden
Intrinsic value of GE's common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

1 DPS0 = Sum of last year dividends per share of GE's common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF hidden%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) hidden%
Systematic risk (β) of GE's common stock βGE hidden
Required rate of return on GE's common stock3 rGE hidden%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

Calculations

2 See Details »

3 rGE = RF + βGE [E(RM) – RF]
= hidden% + hidden [hidden% – hidden%]
= hidden%


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

General Electric Co., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions)
Dividends and other transactions with shareowners hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net earnings (loss) attributable to the Company hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Sales of goods and services hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total assets hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total GE shareowners' equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Ratios
Retention rate1 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Profit margin2 hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden%
Asset turnover3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Financial leverage4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Averages
Retention rate hidden
Profit margin hidden%
Asset turnover hidden
Financial leverage hidden
Dividend growth rate (g)5 hidden%

2017 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net earnings (loss) attributable to the Company – Dividends and other transactions with shareowners) ÷ Net earnings (loss) attributable to the Company
= (hiddenhidden) ÷ hidden = hidden

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings (loss) attributable to the Company ÷ Sales of goods and services
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden%

3 Asset turnover = Sales of goods and services ÷ Total assets
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total GE shareowners' equity
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= hidden × hidden% × hidden × hidden = hidden%


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($hidden × hidden% – $hidden) ÷ ($hidden + $hidden) = hidden%

where:
P0 = current price of share of GE's common stock
D0 = last year dividends per share of GE's common stock
r = required rate of return on GE's common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

General Electric Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden%
2 g2 hidden%
3 g3 hidden%
4 g4 hidden%
5 and thereafter g5 hidden%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%