Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.37% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $25.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 5.5621
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0410
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.83%
November 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5621 + -0.0013 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.0007)
= $54.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5621 + -0.0013 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.8367)
= $46.37
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5621 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.3060)
= $27.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5621 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.1419)
= $23.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.37% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $25.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.5876
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.82%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5876 + -0.0007 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.4441)
= $31.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5876 + -0.0007 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.3324)
= $28.01
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5876 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.3216)
= $27.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5876 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.2099)
= $24.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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