Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.81% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $160.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.61% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2021
End date: December 29, 2023
a = 4.8052
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0570
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0570) – 1
= 25.59%
December 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0001 × 969 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.0184)
= $151.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0001 × 969 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.7906)
= $120.37
December 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0001 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.0934)
= $162.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8052 + 0.0001 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.8655)
= $129.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.81% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $160.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 3.5014
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0484
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0484) – 1
= 21.34%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5014 + 0.0009 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.9528)
= $141.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5014 + 0.0009 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.7594)
= $116.68
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5014 + 0.0009 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.2608)
= $192.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5014 + 0.0009 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.0674)
= $158.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.61% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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