Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.22% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $219.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.72% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 3.7267
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.40%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7267 + 0.0009 × 1,236 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.9562)
= $142.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7267 + 0.0009 × 1,236 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.7379)
= $114.20
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7267 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(5.4892)
= $242.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7267 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(5.2709)
= $194.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.22% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $219.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2026
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 1.9570
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
June 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9570 + 0.0019 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.2244)
= $185.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9570 + 0.0019 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.0768)
= $160.27
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9570 + 0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.5126)
= $247.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9570 + 0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.3651)
= $213.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.72% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.