Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.79% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $180.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.45% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.5666
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0303
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0303) – 1
= 12.91%
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5666 + -0.0009 × 325 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.3497)
= $210.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5666 + -0.0009 × 325 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.2283)
= $186.47
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5666 + -0.0009 × 421 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.2676)
= $193.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5666 + -0.0009 × 421 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.1463)
= $171.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.79% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $180.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.2130
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0209
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.72%
April 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2130 + 0.0000 × 353 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.2687)
= $194.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2130 + 0.0000 × 353 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1851)
= $178.59
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2130 + 0.0000 × 421 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.2714)
= $194.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2130 + 0.0000 × 421 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1878)
= $179.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.45% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.