Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 184.52% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 15, 2026 was $219.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.51 (2.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.29% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 17, 2026
a = 4.1680
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0246
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 184.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.33%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 331 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.1654)
= $175.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 331 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.0671)
= $158.72
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 423 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.4290)
= $227.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 423 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.3307)
= $206.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 184.52% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 15, 2026 was $219.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.51 (2.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = 5.1311
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0212
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0212) – 1
= 8.86%
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1311 + 0.0005 × 389 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.3615)
= $213.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1311 + 0.0005 × 389 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.2766)
= $195.71
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1311 + 0.0005 × 448 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.3900)
= $219.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1311 + 0.0005 × 448 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.3051)
= $201.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.29% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.