Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.08% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $151.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.27% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: November 28, 2025
a = 4.9367
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0581
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0581) – 1
= 26.17%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9367 + 0.0000 × 457 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(5.0665)
= $158.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9367 + 0.0000 × 457 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.8340)
= $125.71
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9367 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(5.1067)
= $165.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9367 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.8743)
= $130.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.08% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $151.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: November 28, 2025
a = 3.7122
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.54%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7122 + 0.0007 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.9580)
= $142.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7122 + 0.0007 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.8310)
= $125.34
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7122 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.1355)
= $169.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7122 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.0084)
= $149.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.27% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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