Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.60% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $64.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.18% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of May 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.44 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OXY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: March 28, 2024
a = 4.3211
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.71%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3211 + -0.0001 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.2984)
= $73.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3211 + -0.0001 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.0617)
= $58.07
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3211 + -0.0001 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.2086)
= $67.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3211 + -0.0001 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(3.9719)
= $53.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.60% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $64.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2024
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 0.6260
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0199
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.30%
January 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6260 + 0.0020 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.0538)
= $57.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6260 + 0.0020 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.9741)
= $53.20
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6260 + 0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.2739)
= $71.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6260 + 0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.1942)
= $66.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.18% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of May 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.44 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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