Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 607.71% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $109.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 349.96% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 2.1125
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 607.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.63%
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1125 + 0.0054 × 449 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.5518)
= $94.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1125 + 0.0054 × 449 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.4876)
= $88.91
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1125 + 0.0054 × 484 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.7395)
= $114.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1125 + 0.0054 × 484 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(4.6752)
= $107.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 607.71% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $109.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 2.7031
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 349.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.17%
October 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7031 + 0.0041 × 464 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6402)
= $103.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7031 + 0.0041 × 464 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.5899)
= $98.48
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7031 + 0.0041 × 484 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.7227)
= $112.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7031 + 0.0041 × 484 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6723)
= $106.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 349.96% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.