Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.08% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $3,183.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 175.93% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.5928
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.16%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5928 + 0.0024 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(7.5608)
= $1,921.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5928 + 0.0024 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(7.4284)
= $1,683.03
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5928 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(8.1230)
= $3,371.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5928 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(7.9906)
= $2,953.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.08% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $3,183.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.9929
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 175.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%
January 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9929 + 0.0028 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.7659)
= $2,358.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9929 + 0.0028 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.6689)
= $2,140.63
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9929 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(8.1191)
= $3,357.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9929 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(8.0220)
= $3,047.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 175.93% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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