Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.73% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $157.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.92% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABNB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.9716
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0850
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0850) – 1
= 40.51%
October 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9716 + 0.0009 × 690 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(4.7606)
= $116.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9716 + 0.0009 × 690 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(4.4205)
= $83.14
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9716 + 0.0009 × 1,245 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(5.2584)
= $192.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9716 + 0.0009 × 1,245 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(4.9183)
= $136.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.73% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $157.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.0451
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.53%
October 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0451 + 0.0017 × 1,037 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.8767)
= $131.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0451 + 0.0017 × 1,037 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.7067)
= $110.68
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0451 + 0.0017 × 1,245 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(5.2270)
= $186.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0451 + 0.0017 × 1,245 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(5.0570)
= $157.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.92% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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