Altria Group Inc. (MO) | Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summery)
Altria Group Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast
USD $
| Year | Value | DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 7.01% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DPS01 | 1.70 | ||
| 1 | DPS1 | 1.98 | = 1.70 × (1 + 16.61%) | 1.85 |
| 2 | DPS2 | 2.24 | = 1.98 × (1 + 13.05%) | 1.96 |
| 3 | DPS3 | 2.45 | = 2.24 × (1 + 9.48%) | 2.00 |
| 4 | DPS4 | 2.60 | = 2.45 × (1 + 5.92%) | 1.98 |
| 5 | DPS5 | 2.66 | = 2.60 × (1 + 2.36%) | 1.90 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 58.59 | = 2.66 × (1 + 2.36%) ÷ (7.01% – 2.36%) | 41.76 |
| Intrinsic value of 's common stock (per share) | $51.45 | |||
| Current share price | $37.44 | |||
1 DPS0 = Sum of last year dividends per share of 's common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
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Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 2.77% |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | 13.09% |
| Systematic risk (β) of 's common stock | βMO | 0.41 |
| Required rate of return on 's common stock3 | rMO | 7.01% |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
Calculations
3 rMO = RF + βMO [E(RM) – RF]
= 2.77% + 0.41 [13.09% – 2.77%]
= 7.01%
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Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Altria Group Inc., PRAT model
| Average | Dec 31, 2012 | Dec 31, 2011 | Dec 31, 2010 | Dec 31, 2009 | Dec 31, 2008 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | |||||||
| Cash dividends declared | 3,447 | 3,266 | 3,045 | 2,738 | 3,505 | ||
| Net earnings attributable to Altria Group, Inc. | 4,180 | 3,390 | 3,905 | 3,206 | 4,930 | ||
| Net revenues | 24,618 | 23,800 | 24,363 | 23,556 | 19,356 | ||
| Total assets | 35,329 | 36,962 | 37,402 | 36,677 | 27,215 | ||
| Stockholders’ equity attributable to Altria Group, Inc. | 3,168 | 3,680 | 5,192 | 4,069 | 2,828 | ||
| Ratios | |||||||
| Retention rate1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.29 | ||
| Profit margin2 | 16.98% | 14.24% | 16.03% | 13.61% | 25.47% | ||
| Asset turnover3 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.71 | ||
| Financial leverage4 | 11.15 | 10.04 | 7.20 | 9.01 | 9.62 | ||
| Averages | |||||||
| Retention rate | 0.17 | ||||||
| Profit margin | 15.22% | ||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.67 | ||||||
| Financial leverage | 9.41 | ||||||
| Dividend growth rate (g)5 | 16.61% | ||||||
2012 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net earnings attributable to Altria Group, Inc. – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net earnings attributable to Altria Group, Inc.
= (4,180 – 3,447) ÷ 4,180 = 0.18
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings attributable to Altria Group, Inc. ÷ Net revenues
= 100 × 4,180 ÷ 24,618 = 16.98%
3 Asset turnover = Net revenues ÷ Total assets
= 24,618 ÷ 35,329 = 0.70
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity attributable to Altria Group, Inc.
= 35,329 ÷ 3,168 = 11.15
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.17 × 15.22% × 0.67 × 9.41 = 16.61%
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model
g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($37.44 × 7.01% – $1.70) ÷ ($37.44 + $1.70) = 2.36%
where:
P0 = current price of share of 's common stock
D0 = last year dividends per share of 's common stock
r = required rate of return on 's common stock
Dividend growth rate (g) forecast
Altria Group Inc., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 16.61% |
| 2 | g2 | 13.05% |
| 3 | g3 | 9.48% |
| 4 | g4 | 5.92% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 2.36% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.61% + (2.36% – 16.61%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 13.05%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.61% + (2.36% – 16.61%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 9.48%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.61% + (2.36% – 16.61%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 5.92%
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