Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI)

Cash Provided by Operating Activities from Continuing Operations

The cash generated from operating activities showed some fluctuations over the examined period. Starting at $2,513 million in 2018, it declined to $1,743 million in 2019. Subsequently, it recovered to $2,479 million in 2020 and maintained a similar level at $2,551 million in 2021. However, a downward trend reemerged in 2022, bringing the figure to $1,990 million, followed by a partial rebound to $2,221 million in 2023. Overall, the values indicate moderate volatility but generally remain above $1,700 million after the initial dip in 2019.

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Free cash flow to equity demonstrated significant variability throughout the period. Initially, a negative flow of -$955 million was recorded in 2018, which worsened substantially to -$2,445 million in 2019. From 2020 onwards, the situation improved markedly, with FCFE turning positive at $2,548 million, followed by $2,095 million in 2021. The upward momentum continued in 2022, reaching $3,491 million, the highest value in the series. In 2023, FCFE decreased notably to $1,281 million, though it remained positive. This pattern suggests a recovery in cash available to equity holders after initial negative values, with some decline from the peak in 2022.

Overall Trends and Insights

The data highlight variability in both operating cash flow and free cash flow to equity over the six-year period. Operating cash flows showed a general resilience to fluctuations, maintaining positive values throughout, albeit with some declines during specific years. In contrast, free cash flow to equity was negative initially, indicating possible higher capital expenditures or financing activities that absorbed cash, but then shifted to strong positive values from 2020 onwards before easing in 2023. The divergence between operating cash flow and FCFE trends could reflect changes in investment, financing structures, or working capital management. The improvement in FCFE from 2020 through 2022 aligns with enhanced liquidity available to equity investors but requires monitoring due to the softening in 2023.

The share price exhibited an overall upward trend from September 30, 2018, to September 30, 2021, increasing from $33.34 to a peak of $78.33. Subsequently, the price declined in the following two years, falling to $66.40 in 2022 and further to $54.10 in 2023. This indicates significant volatility with a notable peak in 2021 before the recent decreases.

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) per share showed considerable fluctuation over the period. The company reported negative FCFE per share values in 2018 and 2019, with -$1.03 and -$3.17 respectively, indicating cash outflows to equity holders in those years. From 2020 onward, FCFE turned positive, reaching a high of $5.08 in 2022 before declining to $1.88 in 2023. This suggests a recovery in cash generation capacity after 2019 but some deceleration in the most recent year.

The Price to FCFE (P/FCFE) ratio was not reported for 2018 and 2019 but appeared starting in 2020 at 12.89. The ratio doubled in 2021 to 26.33, indicating a higher market valuation relative to FCFE at that time. It decreased to 13.06 in 2022, reflecting either a growth in FCFE or share price adjustment, and then rose sharply to 28.75 in 2023. These fluctuations suggest changing market perceptions of the company’s free cash flow value, possibly influenced by the volatility in both share price and FCFE per share.

Overall, the data shows a period of initial cash outflow challenges followed by a recovery phase in FCFE. The share price peaked amid improving FCFE performance but has recently decreased, while valuation multiples have exhibited significant variability, indicating shifts in investor sentiment and expectations regarding future cash flows.