Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.84% per annum.
- GM price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $82.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.97% per annum.
- GM price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 3, 2025
End date: July 21, 2026
a = 4.4026
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.12%
December 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y84)
= Exp(a + b × X84 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4026 + -0.0002 × 120 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.4661)
= $87.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y84)
= Exp(a + b × X84 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4026 + -0.0002 × 120 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.2996)
= $73.67
July 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4026 + -0.0002 × 350 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.4282)
= $83.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4026 + -0.0002 × 350 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.2616)
= $70.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.84% per annum.
- GM price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $82.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 4.1307
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.23%
March 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y143)
= Exp(a + b × X143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1307 + 0.0008 × 209 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.3734)
= $79.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y143)
= Exp(a + b × X143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1307 + 0.0008 × 209 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.2230)
= $68.24
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1307 + 0.0008 × 414 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5377)
= $93.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1307 + 0.0008 × 414 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.3872)
= $80.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.97% per annum.
- GM price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.