Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.04% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $118.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.85 (13.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.84% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 12, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.22 (5.73%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: November 24, 2025
a = 9.7182
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0933
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0933) – 1
= 45.22%
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7182 + -0.0029 × 1,267 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(6.2569)
= $521.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7182 + -0.0029 × 1,267 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(5.8838)
= $359.16
November 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,118)
= Exp(a + b × X1,118 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7182 + -0.0029 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(5.2290)
= $186.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,118)
= Exp(a + b × X1,118 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7182 + -0.0029 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(4.8559)
= $128.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.04% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $118.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.85 (13.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2025
End date: April 28, 2026
a = 6.7331
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0984
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0984) – 1
= 48.20%
June 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7331 + -0.0009 × 1,458 + 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(5.5707)
= $262.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7331 + -0.0009 × 1,458 – 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(5.1773)
= $177.21
April 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7331 + -0.0009 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(5.2715)
= $194.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7331 + -0.0009 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(4.8781)
= $131.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.84% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 12, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.22 (5.73%).