Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.46% per annum.
- SLB price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $49.91 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.32 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.03% per annum.
- SLB price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SLB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 4.9362
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.68%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9362 + -0.0025 × 352 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.1636)
= $64.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9362 + -0.0025 × 352 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.9674)
= $52.85
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9362 + -0.0025 × 444 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.9360)
= $51.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9362 + -0.0025 × 444 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.7398)
= $42.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.46% per annum.
- SLB price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $49.91 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.32 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: August 5, 2026
a = 2.9402
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0257
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 117.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0257) – 1
= 10.83%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9402 + 0.0021 × 415 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.8727)
= $48.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9402 + 0.0021 × 415 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.7698)
= $43.37
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9402 + 0.0021 × 457 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.9619)
= $52.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9402 + 0.0021 × 457 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.8590)
= $47.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.03% per annum.
- SLB price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.