Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of February 22, 2024 was $233.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.93% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of February 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PXD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2022
End date: February 22, 2024
a = 5.6009
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.86%
January 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6009 + -0.0001 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.6328)
= $279.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6009 + -0.0001 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.3263)
= $205.68
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6009 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.5476)
= $256.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6009 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.2412)
= $188.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of February 22, 2024 was $233.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2023
End date: February 22, 2024
a = 4.6965
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.90%
February 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,453 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6965 + 0.0004 × 1,453 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.4223)
= $226.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,453 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6965 + 0.0004 × 1,453 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.2161)
= $184.21
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6965 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.5808)
= $265.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6965 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(5.3746)
= $215.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.93% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of February 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current PXD price trends.
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