Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.09% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 5, 2024 was $851.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.60 (5.40%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 276.51% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: February 1, 2024
a = 3.7885
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0669
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0669) – 1
= 30.67%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7885 + 0.0015 × 1,122 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(5.6265)
= $277.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7885 + 0.0015 × 1,122 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(5.3590)
= $212.51
February 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7885 + 0.0015 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(6.6883)
= $802.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7885 + 0.0015 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(6.4207)
= $614.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.09% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 5, 2024 was $851.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.60 (5.40%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: February 5, 2024
a = 0.0663
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0545
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 276.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0545) – 1
= 24.35%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0663 + 0.0036 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(6.3066)
= $548.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0663 + 0.0036 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(6.0887)
= $440.83
February 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0663 + 0.0036 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(6.8042)
= $901.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0663 + 0.0036 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(6.5863)
= $725.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 276.51% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current DECK price trends.
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