AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) | Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summery)
AstraZeneca PLC, dividends per share (DPS) forecast
USD $
| Year | Value | DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 8.91% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DPS01 | 2.85 | ||
| 1 | DPS1 | 3.42 | = 2.85 × (1 + 19.88%) | 3.14 |
| 2 | DPS2 | 3.95 | = 3.42 × (1 + 15.71%) | 3.33 |
| 3 | DPS3 | 4.41 | = 3.95 × (1 + 11.55%) | 3.41 |
| 4 | DPS4 | 4.74 | = 4.41 × (1 + 7.38%) | 3.37 |
| 5 | DPS5 | 4.89 | = 4.74 × (1 + 3.22%) | 3.19 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 88.68 | = 4.89 × (1 + 3.22%) ÷ (8.91% – 3.22%) | 57.88 |
| Intrinsic value of 's common stock (per share) | $74.32 | |||
| Current share price | $51.71 | |||
1 DPS0 = Sum of last year dividends per share of 's common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
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Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 2.75% |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | 13.08% |
| Systematic risk (β) of 's common stock | βAZN | 0.60 |
| Required rate of return on 's common stock3 | rAZN | 8.91% |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
Calculations
3 rAZN = RF + βAZN [E(RM) – RF]
= 2.75% + 0.60 [13.08% – 2.75%]
= 8.91%
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Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
AstraZeneca PLC, PRAT model
| Average | Dec 31, 2012 | Dec 31, 2011 | Dec 31, 2010 | Dec 31, 2009 | Dec 31, 2008 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | |||||||
| Dividends | 3,619 | 3,752 | 3,494 | 3,026 | 2,767 | ||
| Profit attributable to owners of the Parent | 6,297 | 9,983 | 8,053 | 7,521 | 6,101 | ||
| Revenue | 27,973 | 33,591 | 33,269 | 32,804 | 31,601 | ||
| Total assets | 53,534 | 52,830 | 56,127 | 54,920 | 46,784 | ||
| Capital and reserves attributable to equity holders of the Company | 23,737 | 23,246 | 23,213 | 20,660 | 15,912 | ||
| Ratios | |||||||
| Retention rate1 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.55 | ||
| Profit margin2 | 22.51% | 29.72% | 24.21% | 22.93% | 19.31% | ||
| Asset turnover3 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.68 | ||
| Financial leverage4 | 2.26 | 2.27 | 2.42 | 2.66 | 2.94 | ||
| Averages | |||||||
| Retention rate | 0.55 | ||||||
| Profit margin | 23.73% | ||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.60 | ||||||
| Financial leverage | 2.51 | ||||||
| Dividend growth rate (g)5 | 19.88% | ||||||
2012 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Profit attributable to owners of the Parent – Dividends) ÷ Profit attributable to owners of the Parent
= (6,297 – 3,619) ÷ 6,297 = 0.43
2 Profit margin = 100 × Profit attributable to owners of the Parent ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 6,297 ÷ 27,973 = 22.51%
3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 27,973 ÷ 53,534 = 0.52
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Capital and reserves attributable to equity holders of the Company
= 53,534 ÷ 23,737 = 2.26
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.55 × 23.73% × 0.60 × 2.51 = 19.88%
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model
g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($51.71 × 8.91% – $2.85) ÷ ($51.71 + $2.85) = 3.22%
where:
P0 = current price of share of 's common stock
D0 = last year dividends per share of 's common stock
r = required rate of return on 's common stock
Dividend growth rate (g) forecast
AstraZeneca PLC, H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 19.88% |
| 2 | g2 | 15.71% |
| 3 | g3 | 11.55% |
| 4 | g4 | 7.38% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 3.22% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 19.88% + (3.22% – 19.88%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 15.71%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 19.88% + (3.22% – 19.88%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 11.55%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 19.88% + (3.22% – 19.88%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 7.38%
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