Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.82% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of July 26, 2022 was $174.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.32 (1.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,906.03% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of July 26, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2021
End date: July 18, 2022
a = 7.8355
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0540
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0540) – 1
= 24.11%
November 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8355 + -0.0015 × 1,560 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.5542)
= $258.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8355 + -0.0015 × 1,560 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.3382)
= $208.14
July 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8355 + -0.0015 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.1606)
= $174.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8355 + -0.0015 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(4.9446)
= $140.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.82% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of July 26, 2022 was $174.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.32 (1.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 1, 2022
End date: July 26, 2022
a = -11.8271
b = 0.0093
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0093) – 1
= 2,906.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.30%
July 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.8271 + 0.0093 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.0094)
= $149.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.8271 + 0.0093 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.9023)
= $134.60
July 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.8271 + 0.0093 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.2425)
= $189.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.8271 + 0.0093 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.1354)
= $169.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,906.03% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of July 26, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
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