Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.38% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $729.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.76% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.4030
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.70%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4030 + 0.0012 × 1,402 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.1858)
= $485.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4030 + 0.0012 × 1,402 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.0060)
= $405.84
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4030 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.6954)
= $808.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4030 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.5155)
= $675.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.38% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $729.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 7.9894
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.21%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9894 + -0.0008 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(6.6525)
= $774.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9894 + -0.0008 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(6.5828)
= $722.56
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9894 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(6.6026)
= $736.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9894 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(6.5329)
= $687.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.76% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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