Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.79% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $347.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.66% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.3619
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.25%
March 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3619 + 0.0008 × 1,414 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.6107)
= $273.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3619 + 0.0008 × 1,414 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.4263)
= $227.30
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3619 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.9477)
= $382.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3619 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.7632)
= $318.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.79% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $347.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.8508
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0394
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0394) – 1
= 17.05%
November 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8508 + 0.0017 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(5.7038)
= $299.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8508 + 0.0017 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(5.5463)
= $256.30
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8508 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(5.9978)
= $402.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8508 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(5.8404)
= $343.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.66% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out CI and 1,499 other stocks on our new website