Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.02% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $291.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.65% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.6386
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.85%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6386 + 0.0017 × 1,226 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.8221)
= $124.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6386 + 0.0017 × 1,226 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.5157)
= $91.44
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6386 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.8156)
= $335.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6386 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.5093)
= $246.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.02% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $291.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.0135
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0607
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.47%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0135 + 0.0020 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.0838)
= $161.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0135 + 0.0020 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.8411)
= $126.61
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0135 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.8382)
= $343.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0135 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.5955)
= $269.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.65% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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