Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.30% per annum.
- T price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $16.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.36 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.72% per annum.
- T price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: April 5, 2024
a = 0.9270
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0283
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0283) – 1
= 11.98%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9270 + 0.0011 × 1,537 + 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(2.6429)
= $14.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9270 + 0.0011 × 1,537 – 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(2.5298)
= $12.55
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9270 + 0.0011 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(2.9301)
= $18.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9270 + 0.0011 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(2.8169)
= $16.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.30% per annum.
- T price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $16.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.36 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 2.3657
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0229
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0229) – 1
= 9.58%
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3657 + 0.0003 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.8373)
= $17.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3657 + 0.0003 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.7459)
= $15.58
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3657 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.8750)
= $17.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3657 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.7835)
= $16.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.72% per annum.
- T price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out T and 1,499 other stocks on our new website