Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 169.37% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $441.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.95% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 1.3671
b = 0.0027
s = 0.1230
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 169.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1230) – 1
= 63.54%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3671 + 0.0027 × 1,242 + 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(4.9849)
= $146.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3671 + 0.0027 × 1,242 – 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(4.4930)
= $89.39
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3671 + 0.0027 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(6.5487)
= $698.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3671 + 0.0027 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(6.0568)
= $427.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 169.37% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $441.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 2.3903
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0781
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0781) – 1
= 36.68%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3903 + 0.0021 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(5.5068)
= $246.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3903 + 0.0021 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(5.1943)
= $180.24
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3903 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(6.3747)
= $586.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3903 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(6.0623)
= $429.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.95% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out META and 1,499 other stocks on our new website