Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.00% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $442.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.01% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 8.7276
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0070
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -41.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0070) – 1
= 2.83%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7276 + -0.0014 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(6.1756)
= $480.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7276 + -0.0014 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(6.1476)
= $467.61
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7276 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(6.1019)
= $446.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7276 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(6.0739)
= $434.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.00% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $442.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 7.0865
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0027
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0027) – 1
= 1.10%
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0865 + -0.0005 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0027)
= Exp(6.1088)
= $449.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0865 + -0.0005 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0027)
= Exp(6.0979)
= $444.94
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0865 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0027)
= Exp(6.0985)
= $445.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0865 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0027)
= Exp(6.0876)
= $440.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.01% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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