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Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) | Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summery)
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Marathon Oil Corp., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
USD $ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFF0 | |
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| 1 | FCFF1 | |
= × (1 + %) |
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| 2 | FCFF2 | |
= × (1 + %) |
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| 3 | FCFF3 | |
= × (1 + %) |
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| 4 | FCFF4 | |
= × (1 + %) |
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| 5 | FCFF5 | |
= × (1 + %) |
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| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | |
= × (1 + %) ÷ (% – %) |
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| Intrinsic value of 's capital | |
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| Less: Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) | |
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| Intrinsic value of 's common stock | |
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| Intrinsic value of 's common stock (per share) | $ |
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| Current share price | $ |
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Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
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Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
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Marathon Oil Corp., cost of capital
| Value1 | Weight | Required rate of return2 | Calculation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (fair value) | |
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% |
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| Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) | |
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% |
= % × (1 – %) |
1 USD $ in millions
2 Required rate of return on debt is after tax (estimated effective tax rate is %)
WACC = %
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FCFF Growth Rate (g)
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FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Marathon Oil Corp., PRAT model
| Average | Dec 31, 2011 | Dec 31, 2010 | Dec 31, 2009 | Dec 31, 2008 | Dec 31, 2007 | ||
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| Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | |||||||
| Provision for income taxes | |
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| Net income | |
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| Tax rate1 | % |
% |
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% |
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| Interest expense, less income (loss) on interest rate swaps and interest capitalized | |
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| Interest expense, less income (loss) on interest rate swaps and interest capitalized, after tax2 | |
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| Add: Dividends paid | |
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| Interest expense (after tax) and dividends | |
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| EBIT(1 – Tax Rate)3 | |
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| Long-term debt due within one year | |
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| Long-term debt, excluding due within one year | |
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| Equity of Marathon Oil's stockholders | |
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| Total capital | |
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| Retention rate (RR)4 | |
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| Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 | % |
% |
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% |
% |
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| Averages | |||||||
| RR | |
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| ROIC | % |
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| Growth rate of FCFF (g)6 | % |
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2011 Calculations
1 Tax rate = 100 × Provision for income taxes ÷ (Net income + Provision for income taxes)
= 100 × ÷ ( + ) = %
2 Interest expense, less income (loss) on interest rate swaps and interest capitalized, after tax = Interest expense, less income (loss) on interest rate swaps and interest capitalized × (1 – Tax rate)
= × (1 – %) =
3 EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) = Net income + Interest expense, less income (loss) on interest rate swaps and interest capitalized, after tax
= + =
4 RR = [EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – Tax Rate)
= [ – ] ÷ =
5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷ = %
6 g = RR × ROIC
= × % = %
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × ( × % – ) ÷ ( + ) = %
where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of 's debt and equity (USD $ in millions)
FCFF0 = last year 's free cash flow to the firm (USD $ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of 's capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
Marathon Oil Corp., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | % |
| 2 | g2 | % |
| 3 | g3 | % |
| 4 | g4 | % |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | % |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= % + (% – %) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = %
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= % + (% – %) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = %
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= % + (% – %) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = %
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