Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.38% per annum.
- CMI price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $280.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.91 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.93% per annum.
- CMI price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 2.3800
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.54%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3800 + 0.0018 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.4092)
= $223.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3800 + 0.0018 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.2910)
= $198.55
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3800 + 0.0018 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.7588)
= $316.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3800 + 0.0018 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.6407)
= $281.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.38% per annum.
- CMI price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $280.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.91 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 9.9821
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.56%
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9821 + -0.0024 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.7367)
= $310.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9821 + -0.0024 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.6921)
= $296.51
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9821 + -0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.6727)
= $290.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9821 + -0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.6280)
= $278.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.93% per annum.
- CMI price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current CMI price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website