Nike Inc. (NKE) | Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summery)
Nike Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
USD $ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 11.05% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFF0 | 1,326 | ||
| 1 | FCFF1 | 1,515 | = 1,326 × (1 + 14.26%) | 1,364 |
| 2 | FCFF2 | 1,709 | = 1,515 × (1 + 12.86%) | 1,386 |
| 3 | FCFF3 | 1,905 | = 1,709 × (1 + 11.45%) | 1,391 |
| 4 | FCFF4 | 2,097 | = 1,905 × (1 + 10.05%) | 1,379 |
| 5 | FCFF5 | 2,278 | = 2,097 × (1 + 8.65%) | 1,349 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 103,009 | = 2,278 × (1 + 8.65%) ÷ (11.05% – 8.65%) | 60,994 |
| Intrinsic value of 's capital | 67,862 | |||
| Less: Notes payable (fair value) | 108 | |||
| Less: Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) | 283 | |||
| Intrinsic value of 's common stock | 67,471 | |||
| Intrinsic value of 's common stock (per share) | $74.00 | |||
| Current share price | $65.32 | |||
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
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Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Nike Inc., cost of capital
| Value1 | Weight | Required rate of return2 | Calculation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (fair value) | 59,555 | 0.99 | 11.10% | |
| Notes payable (fair value) | 108 | 0.00 | 6.30% | = 8.36% × (1 – 24.70%) |
| Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) | 283 | 0.00 | 3.33% | = 4.42% × (1 – 24.70%) |
1 USD $ in millions
2 Required rate of return on debt is after tax (estimated effective tax rate is 24.70%)
WACC = 11.05%
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FCFF Growth Rate (g)
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Nike Inc., PRAT model
| Average | May 31, 2012 | May 31, 2011 | May 31, 2010 | May 31, 2009 | May 31, 2008 | May 31, 2007 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | ||||||||
| Income taxes | 760 | 711 | 610 | 470 | 620 | 708 | ||
| Net income | 2,223 | 2,133 | 1,907 | 1,487 | 1,883 | 1,492 | ||
| Tax rate1 | 25.48% | 25.00% | 24.24% | 24.02% | 24.77% | 32.18% | ||
| Interest expense | 33 | 34 | 36 | 40 | 39 | 50 | ||
| Interest expense, after tax2 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 34 | ||
| Add: Dividends on common stock | 639 | 569 | 515 | 475 | 433 | 357 | ||
| Interest expense (after tax) and dividends | 664 | 595 | 542 | 505 | 462 | 391 | ||
| EBIT(1 – Tax Rate)3 | 2,248 | 2,159 | 1,934 | 1,517 | 1,912 | 1,526 | ||
| Notes payable | 108 | 187 | 139 | 343 | 178 | 101 | ||
| Current portion of long-term debt | 49 | 200 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 31 | ||
| Long-term debt, excluding current portion | 228 | 276 | 446 | 437 | 441 | 410 | ||
| Total shareholders' equity | 10,381 | 9,843 | 9,754 | 8,693 | 7,825 | 7,025 | ||
| Total capital | 10,766 | 10,506 | 10,346 | 9,505 | 8,450 | 7,567 | ||
| Ratios | ||||||||
| Retention rate (RR)4 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.76 | 0.74 | ||
| Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 | 20.88% | 20.55% | 18.70% | 15.96% | 22.63% | 20.17% | ||
| Averages | ||||||||
| RR | 0.72 | |||||||
| ROIC | 19.81% | |||||||
| Growth rate of FCFF (g)6 | 14.26% | |||||||
2012 Calculations
1 Tax rate = 100 × Income taxes ÷ (Net income + Income taxes)
= 100 × 760 ÷ (2,223 + 760) = 25.48%
2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – Tax rate)
= 33 × (1 – 25.48%) = 25
3 EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) = Net income + Interest expense, after tax
= 2,223 + 25 = 2,248
4 RR = [EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – Tax Rate)
= [2,248 – 664] ÷ 2,248 = 0.70
5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – Tax Rate) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 2,248 ÷ 10,766 = 20.88%
6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.72 × 19.81% = 14.26%
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (59,946 × 11.05% – 1,326) ÷ (59,946 + 1,326) = 8.65%
where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of 's debt and equity (USD $ in millions)
FCFF0 = last year 's free cash flow to the firm (USD $ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of 's capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
Nike Inc., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 14.26% |
| 2 | g2 | 12.86% |
| 3 | g3 | 11.45% |
| 4 | g4 | 10.05% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 8.65% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 14.26% + (8.65% – 14.26%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 12.86%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 14.26% + (8.65% – 14.26%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 11.45%
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 14.26% + (8.65% – 14.26%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 10.05%
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